Understanding the Redwine Model (TRM-COVOR)—the Basic Map

The basic map includes a minimum essential data set (MEDS) consisting of Ortho Imagery, Elevation, Hydrography, Transportation, Boundaries, Structures, Land Cover, Geographic Names, geology, soil, and more. Additionally, the basic map primarily consists of points indicating particular places such as locations where the victim was last seen, places where the victim has been known to visit, location of friends and family, known sex offenders living in the area, persons of interest, and other items of interest.

General Area Searches often include wooded and uninhabited areas according to the FBI’s Child Abduction Response Plan. It is of utmost importance that a “systematic approach” is used and GIS can absolutely make this possible. GIS similar to TRM-COVOR can also assist in the establishment of high ground required to monitor search efforts, and can also take inputs from aerial resources monitoring search efforts.

Side-note: The response plan also notes that making contact with trash companies to determine the location of dumpsters and their pick up schedule is necessary. This is information that can be transferred using GIS further supporting systematic search efforts.

Creation of this comprehensive basic map is similar to that of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children’s (NCMEC) geographic investigative protocols, and has proven helpful in all aspects of TRM-COVOR investigations.

NCMEC came into being as the result of the Missing Children’s Assistance Act (MCAA) in April 1984 and serves as a national clearinghouse for all data concerning missing and exploited children with recovery rates of nearly 94 percent. Much like our COVOR model, children reported missing to NCMEC are assigned, “to one of four main missing case types—endangered runaway (ERU); family abduction (FA); lost, injured, or otherwise missing (LIM); and non-family abduction (NFA),” (Kochan, 2003). According to NCMEC in 2003, “ERUs represent approximately 72 percent of the children reported missing to NCMEC; FAs, 22 percent; LIMs, 4 percent; and NFAs, the remaining 3 percent,” (Kochan, 2003).

TRM-COVOR includes additional statistical representations in the form of distance rings on the basic map in order to enhance searches, and assist in the Neighborhood Canvas portion of the investigation in addition to general area searches. Logging all information collected in searches is one of the keys to successful recovery of any missing person, or item (USDOJ 2004). Taking this further by logging collected evidence, and additional clues, with points on the map can make patterns more evident, and lead to quicker recovery of the missing.

Information regarding the child’s family and friends is collected and coded for inclusion in the basic map as well. “This information is entered into the NCMEC database and automatically geocoded with latitude and longitude,” along with incoming leads/tips in the case (Kochan, 2003).

A custom java program written by Peg Flick—Chief Information Officer for NCMEC—runs in the background and ranks leads. “If the lead location is within a certain proximity of any of the addresses collected from the searching parent as possible locations, these leads are automatically given a high rank,” (Kochan, 2003). Map Objects software is then used, “to query each child’s case for the geographic distribution of leads,” moreover, “the visual display of these leads is searched for patterns, and a cluster of high ranking leads in a given area could warrant a targeted poster distribution.

TRM-COVOR cannot intake leads in the same way law enforcement or NCMEC can, but what it can and does do is operationalize a massive social media campaign designed to spread the word of Dylan’s situation, and create new actionable intelligence.

Managing Social Media using advanced business intelligence is a core tenet of TRM-COVOR.

Managing Social Media using advanced business intelligence is a core tenet of TRM-COVOR.

The social media operation takes place at Collective & Objective Voice of Reason for Dylan Redwine (COVOR-DR). COVOR-DR is a Facebook page designed to serve multiple purposes. Created as a community page about the official Facebook page Find Missing Dylan Redwine, it acts as an avenue towards collective analysis and insight for those with knowledge of the case.

COVOR-DR uses advanced business intelligence tools in concert with Facebook’s targeted advertising metrics in order to reach locations within the COVOR geographic area.

TRM-COVOR System Output

TRM-COVOR System Output

You will find more detailed information regarding the social media aspects of the investigation, as well as, additional GIS methodologies operationalized in future discussions.

Suggested Reading

Hanfland, Kenneth A., Keppel, Robert D., Weis, Joseph G., and Gregoire, Christine O. Case Management for Missing Children Homicide Investigation. 5-1-1997. Washington, US Department of Justice Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. 2-10-2013.

Kochan, Geraldine. The Search for Missing Children Aided With GIS. 2003. ESRI. 4-17-2013.

US Dept of Justice and FBI. Child Abduction response Plan: An Investigative Guide. 1-1-2004. 2-10-2013.

About fdnropsec

I have earned a Bachelor of Science in International Relations from the University of Houston where I also minored in International Business and Print Journalism. During my time in the journalism field I had the unique opportunity to meet and interview President George W. Bush and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates during the lead up to the Iraq war. Since then my studies have focused on predictive analytics in the areas of nuclear counter-terrorism, criminal intelligence analysis and foreign policy analysis in a freelance capacity. Currently, I am pursuing a Master of Arts in Intelligence Studies at American Military University. I am a contributing member of the Academy of Political Science, member of the National Military Intelligence Association, and am an International Gold Key Scholar. That said, I have designed this collective analytical effort to operationalize and fuse various analytic frameworks so as to generate a predictive model that will mitigate cognitive bias, frivolous speculation, and nonsensical character assaults, and ultimately deliver comprehensive quantifiable OSINT products containing sound and transparent analytic judgments to the search for Dylan Redwine deliverable through a custom Geographic Information System (GIS).

Posted on May 8, 2013, in COVOR Facts, Craig Byrnes, Dylan in the News, Geographic Intelligence Systems, Maps, Prevention Tips, Social Media Moments, Understanding the Redwine Model and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: