Understanding the Redwine Model (TRM-COVOR)—THEORETICAL ASSUMPTIONS


Routine Activities Theory (RAT) underlies all prevention analysis provided by TRM-COVOR systems. “The theory states that a crime occurs when the following three elements come together in any given space and time: 1) An accessible target, 2) The absence of capable guardians that could intervene, and 3) the presence of a motivated offender,” (New South Wales Attorney General Office 2011).

This theory is one of the main theories of environmental criminology, providing, “simple and powerful insight into the causes of crime problems,” (Center for Problem Oriented Policing 2013). It has been suggested that if one of the three elements is eliminated a crime is prevented.

RAT can also assist in the initial determination of a missing child by uncovering whether the possibility of criminal action existed in the first place. It has been determined that in the case of Dylan Redwine, multiple opportunities presented themselves.

RAT also makes it clear that, “the spatial ordering of crime opportunities and the routines of offenders and victims creates many of the crime problems we see,” (Center for Problem Oriented Policing 2013). It focuses on settings instead of offenders, and seeks to, “forestall the occurrence of crime,” (Clarke 1997).

The bottom-line is situational prevention will bring lower levels of crime.

Suggested Reading

Center for Problem Oriented Policing. A Theory of Crime Problems. 2013. Center for Problem Oriented Policing. 2-19-2013.

Clarke, Ronald V. Situational Crime Prevention. [2nd]. 1997. Guilderland, New York, Harrow and Heston. 3-3-2013.

New South Wales Attorney General’s Office. Routine Activity Theory. 2011. State of New South Wales through the Department of Attorney General and Justice. 4-5-2013.

About fdnropsec

I have earned a Bachelor of Science in International Relations from the University of Houston where I also minored in International Business and Print Journalism. During my time in the journalism field I had the unique opportunity to meet and interview President George W. Bush and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates during the lead up to the Iraq war. Since then my studies have focused on predictive analytics in the areas of nuclear counter-terrorism, criminal intelligence analysis and foreign policy analysis in a freelance capacity. Currently, I am pursuing a Master of Arts in Intelligence Studies at American Military University. I am a contributing member of the Academy of Political Science, member of the National Military Intelligence Association, and am an International Gold Key Scholar. That said, I have designed this collective analytical effort to operationalize and fuse various analytic frameworks so as to generate a predictive model that will mitigate cognitive bias, frivolous speculation, and nonsensical character assaults, and ultimately deliver comprehensive quantifiable OSINT products containing sound and transparent analytic judgments to the search for Dylan Redwine deliverable through a custom Geographic Information System (GIS).

Posted on May 8, 2013, in COVOR Facts, Craig Byrnes, Dylan in the News, Geographic Intelligence Systems, Prevention Tips, Understanding the Redwine Model and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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