Category Archives: Social Media Moments
The experience of a new sense of paranoia, about our intellectual capacities, our attention spans, our abilities to concentrate, to retain. “I simply don’t seem to have the wherewithal to make it through a long book anymore – twitter’s ruined it all.” “I can remember when I’d simply sit at my desk and will my way to finishing an essay, as an undergraduate, more than a decade ago. But now, there are all of these sites to check, and emails and texts pinging their way into my awareness all of the time, and so…”
And so… one lays in bed at night worrying that the game really is up, what one could once do one can do no more, lost now in the funhouse of the always-on mediasphere. “In or around June 1995 human character changed again,” a recent essay tells us. Another, by a self-proclaimed saint of seriousness…
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With Judges accepting application of Predictive Analytics, why haven’t we seen a massive conversion to technology based solutions?
Since the introduction of analytics to the eDiscovery space, there has been an assumption that once there was judicial acceptance there would be a massive migration to the faster, cheaper solutions leveraging the new technologies. Studies including the infamous TREC one have consistently shown that human review is far from flawless and consistent. And yet, there has not been a mass exodus from linear human review to automated or semi automated solutions. Why is this the case?
What the Heck is TAR?
The resistance to fully embracing analytic solutions comes from several places, but one of the largest sources is an overall lack of understanding as to what predictive analytics can and cannot do. And a false belief that to use Technology Assisted Review solutions (TAR) requires abdication of all control over…
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The basic map includes a minimum essential data set (MEDS) consisting of Ortho Imagery, Elevation, Hydrography, Transportation, Boundaries, Structures, Land Cover, Geographic Names, geology, soil, and more. Additionally, the basic map primarily consists of points indicating particular places such as locations where the victim was last seen, places where the victim has been known to visit, location of friends and family, known sex offenders living in the area, persons of interest, and other items of interest.
General Area Searches often include wooded and uninhabited areas according to the FBI’s Child Abduction Response Plan. It is of utmost importance that a “systematic approach” is used and GIS can absolutely make this possible. GIS similar to TRM-COVOR can also assist in the establishment of high ground required to monitor search efforts, and can also take inputs from aerial resources monitoring search efforts.
Side-note: The response plan also notes that making contact with trash companies to determine the location of dumpsters and their pick up schedule is necessary. This is information that can be transferred using GIS further supporting systematic search efforts.
Creation of this comprehensive basic map is similar to that of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children’s (NCMEC) geographic investigative protocols, and has proven helpful in all aspects of TRM-COVOR investigations.
NCMEC came into being as the result of the Missing Children’s Assistance Act (MCAA) in April 1984 and serves as a national clearinghouse for all data concerning missing and exploited children with recovery rates of nearly 94 percent. Much like our COVOR model, children reported missing to NCMEC are assigned, “to one of four main missing case types—endangered runaway (ERU); family abduction (FA); lost, injured, or otherwise missing (LIM); and non-family abduction (NFA),” (Kochan, 2003). According to NCMEC in 2003, “ERUs represent approximately 72 percent of the children reported missing to NCMEC; FAs, 22 percent; LIMs, 4 percent; and NFAs, the remaining 3 percent,” (Kochan, 2003).
TRM-COVOR includes additional statistical representations in the form of distance rings on the basic map in order to enhance searches, and assist in the Neighborhood Canvas portion of the investigation in addition to general area searches. Logging all information collected in searches is one of the keys to successful recovery of any missing person, or item (USDOJ 2004). Taking this further by logging collected evidence, and additional clues, with points on the map can make patterns more evident, and lead to quicker recovery of the missing.
Information regarding the child’s family and friends is collected and coded for inclusion in the basic map as well. “This information is entered into the NCMEC database and automatically geocoded with latitude and longitude,” along with incoming leads/tips in the case (Kochan, 2003).
A custom java program written by Peg Flick—Chief Information Officer for NCMEC—runs in the background and ranks leads. “If the lead location is within a certain proximity of any of the addresses collected from the searching parent as possible locations, these leads are automatically given a high rank,” (Kochan, 2003). Map Objects software is then used, “to query each child’s case for the geographic distribution of leads,” moreover, “the visual display of these leads is searched for patterns, and a cluster of high ranking leads in a given area could warrant a targeted poster distribution.
TRM-COVOR cannot intake leads in the same way law enforcement or NCMEC can, but what it can and does do is operationalize a massive social media campaign designed to spread the word of Dylan’s situation, and create new actionable intelligence.
The social media operation takes place at Collective & Objective Voice of Reason for Dylan Redwine (COVOR-DR). COVOR-DR is a Facebook page designed to serve multiple purposes. Created as a community page about the official Facebook page Find Missing Dylan Redwine, it acts as an avenue towards collective analysis and insight for those with knowledge of the case.
COVOR-DR uses advanced business intelligence tools in concert with Facebook’s targeted advertising metrics in order to reach locations within the COVOR geographic area.
You will find more detailed information regarding the social media aspects of the investigation, as well as, additional GIS methodologies operationalized in future discussions.
Hanfland, Kenneth A., Keppel, Robert D., Weis, Joseph G., and Gregoire, Christine O. Case Management for Missing Children Homicide Investigation. 5-1-1997. Washington, US Department of Justice Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. 2-10-2013.
Kochan, Geraldine. The Search for Missing Children Aided With GIS. 2003. ESRI. 4-17-2013.
US Dept of Justice and FBI. Child Abduction response Plan: An Investigative Guide. 1-1-2004. 2-10-2013.
Tags: analysis, bayfield, Child Abduction, child saftey, Colorado, COVOR FACT, CR 240, criminal intelligence analysis, Dylan Redwine, Dylan Redwine Taskforce, Elaine Redwine, Find, GIS, information, Interviews, knowledge, La Plata County, Map Layer, Mark Redwine, Missing, news, Parcel Layers, Prevention, Redwine Model, Search, statistics, tips, Vallecito
TRM-COVOR operationalizes a Social Media Management plan to spread awareness and collect crowd sourced information that will increase the safety of children by providing a platform for analysis, and by carefully crafting questions that will help to determine the information needed, how it will be used, and who will use it (Mitchell 1999). Additionally, because TRM-COVOR is based in purpose, it will provide outputs that are characteristically descriptive, prescriptive, and predictive allowing for multiple methods of result distribution, such as maps, tables, and charts. When coupled with a validity assessment, COVOR GIS allows for quickly changing methods helpful for comparison, and an enhanced understanding of the overall investigation into the disappearance of Dylan Redwine, ultimately leading to greater levels of successful recovery of all missing children.
GIS has proven to be a vital component to successful recovery of missing children, therefore this system will pool statistical research on child abduction and child homicide—and an analysis of competing hypotheses—in order to discuss mapping basic missing child cases (MEDS), implications of statistical representations, the importance of neighborhood mapping, hybrid social media management, and detailed site specific analysis in the case of Dylan Redwine. This will set the stage for further exploration of the advancement of GIS and predictive modeling, making it clear GIS cannot provide an answer on its own, but highlighting that it can provide for an environment fostering creative thinking, organization, and efficiency.
Some Additional Reading
Mitchell, Andy. The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis: Geographic Patterns and Relationships. 1-1-1999. Redlands, California, Ingram Publisher Services.
Mitchell, Andy. The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis: Spatial Measurements and Statistics. 1-1-2005. Redlands, California, Ingram Publisher Services.
Mitchell, Andy. The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis: Modeling Suitability, Movement, and Interaction. 1-1-2012. Redlands, California, Ingram Publisher Services.
Tags: analysis, Child Abduction, child saftey, Colorado, COVOR FACT, CR 240, criminal intelligence analysis, Dylan Redwine, Dylan Redwine Taskforce, Find, GIS, knowledge, La Plata County, Mark Redwine, Missing, news, Prevention, Redwine Model, Search, social media, The Redwine Model, Vallecito
Former FBI profiler Clint Van Zandt offers valuable advice on how to safeguard your children from falling victim to a predator. Among the many words of wisdom Van Zandt has to offer he reminds children they have the right to be forceful, saying, “you can be assertive and you have the right to say ‘No’ to someone, including adults and even relatives or friends who try to take you somewhere against your will, touch you or make you feel uncomfortable in ANY WAY.”
Van Zandt also notes that, “many parents use a special code word that only the child knows to convey a message should someone other than a parent ask a child to accompany them anywhere.” This offers an opportunity to bond with your child, while keeping them safe. Try watching an age appropriate spy movie with them and talk about the code afterward. They will think it a “cool” idea, and are more likely to recall in a time of danger.
Finally, Van Zandt mentions something parents could innocently overlook. When you buy your child something for school, be it notebooks, lunch totes, or backpacks, remember there is a right place and a wrong place to write your son or daughters name. Notebooks are free space, but anything they will be carrying or displaying outwardly should have the name written on the inside. According to Van Zandt you need to, “insure your child does not have his or her name on a backpack, etc., as this would enable a potential abductor to call out to the child by name,” and could make a preventable tragedy an awful reality.
You can read the article—“How to protect kids from predators, kidnappers”—at http://www.today.com/id/33436827/ns/today-parenting_and_family/t/how-protect-kids-predators-kidnappers/
COVOR your backside…Share this fact with at least one parent you know who loves their child because sharing is caring!
Posted on | Aside
Situational Awareness by all citizens can prevent child abductions.
According to the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS), “many child abductions are witnessed by people who do not realize that a crime is being committed.” If you see something questionable, write it down–descriptions of people, location, license plates–because a child throwing a tantrum when a parent tries to leave the mall/playground/store, and a child being pulled away kicking and screaming by an abductor can seem very similar, and while it is an innocent situation most of the time, sometimes it is not.
Therefore, it stands to reason that we should all remember, just as NCJRS says, “nothing prevents a citizen from evaluating the circumstances, intervening, and, certainly, from noting descriptions and licenses numbers.”